SEMI Julong: Global lack of core-accelerated restructuring of semiconductor industry chain layout
2021-06-21 15:25
2021World Semiconductor Conference6Month9The day begins,SEMIGlobal Vice President and President of China, Ju Long, delivered a keynote speech on "Global Core Shortage-Accelerated Reorganization of Semiconductor Industry Chain Layout". Starting from the topic of global core shortage, this paper deeply analyzes the current international and domestic semiconductor industry status and future development trend with detailed data.
Three consecutive years of growthSuper CycleSuper Cycle
Since the second half of last year, starting from the shortage of automotive chips, the lack of cores has extended to the entire industry including mobile phones, data centers, consumer electronics, etc., and has even attracted the attention of leaders in many countries. "The lack of production capacity is comprehensive. From advanced nodes to more mature nodes, we even feel the shortage of certain materials." Julong pointed out that in addition to the factors of strong demand and insufficient production capacity, the problem of lack of core also includes the management of the supply chain, the impact and restructuring of the new crown epidemic and the international situation on the industrial chain.
The digital economy and smart applications will continue to drive the growth of the semiconductor market. The latest data show that in the first quarter of this year, the top 15 companies in the semiconductor market as a whole grew year-on-year.21%,IntelOutside allIDM,Fabless,Foundryare generally growing, including smartphones, automotive electronics, and other applications./Electric vehicles, servers/data center,PC,AI(artificial intelligence),5GApplications in various fields such as communications are all-round growth, especially memory continues to grow with strong momentum. "The growth rate of the data of the comprehensive forecast agencies is in.15-20%between, while there may be some slowdown in the second half of the year, beyond5000The $100 million milestone should be reached this year." Julong stressed that the global semiconductor market has reached the end of the year, driven by the strong demand for digital economy and intelligent applications.2022will achieve three consecutive years of growthSuper CycleThe super cycle.
Strong global semiconductor investment, advanced capacity in East Asia, mature capacity to see China
According to the statistics of 12-inch fabs, the number of advanced nodes continues to increase, and the construction of 12-inch fabs is dominated by Taiwan, South Korea and China. In fact, the lack of cores in 8-inch factories is even more tense. Globally, the production capacity of 8-inch fabs will continue to increase from 2020 to 2024, with an expected increase of 950000 pieces/month, an increase of 17%, reaching a historical record of 6.6 million pieces/month. China's 8-inch factory capacity continues to rise, leading the world. In 2021, 8-inch wafer production capacity in China accounted for 18%, the world's first. In the next five years, China's production capacity will continue to rise.
Last year, China was the world's largest equipment market. Judging from the equipment shipments in the first quarter of this year, China, Taiwan and South Korea are still growing. South Korea of them are even growing at twice the number and increasing the investment in memory.
From the perspective of subdividing the wafer manufacturing equipment market, the WFE market is expected to show steady growth in the next few years. The market size will exceed US $78 billion in 2021 and is expected to exceed US $87 billion in 2022.
After strong growth in 2020, NAND investment will contract some in 2021, but will rebound to $19 billion in 2022; DRAM is expected to increase from $10 billion in 2020 to $15 billion in 2021. As a result, Foundry and Logic fab equipment spending will remain strong throughout the forecast period and is expected to exceed $44 billion in 2021 and 2022.
Whether it is from wafer manufacturing or packaging testing, there has been very rapid growth. The packaging test market is growing even faster than wafer fabrication. The growth of semiconductor manufacturing equipment this year will reach 15%-20% or even higher, and packaging testing will reach about 25%.
Accelerated restructuring of global semiconductor industry chain, China's response
Julong analyzed the plans of the United States, South Korea, the European Union, Japan and other countries for the semiconductor industry chain. In the near future, the investment plan for the semiconductor industry chain includes the US government's $50 billion investment in R & D and manufacturing, and the South Korea plans to invest in 450 billion in the next 10 years. Capital spending by semiconductor companies has increased to record levels this year, with Samsung and TSMC investing $300 billion billion and Intel, Hyex and Micron all stepping up their investments.
Under the background of the global lack of core, China is facing more profound problems such as huge deficit in chip trade, lack of Chinese core and being stuck in the neck. Therefore, it is urgent to improve the self-sufficiency of domestic semiconductors.
Julong pointed out that there is still a gap between the development of China's semiconductor industry and the advanced world, especially in equipment, materials and EDA tools. Taking semiconductor equipment as an example, there is a large gap between supply and demand. "This is a short board, but also an opportunity. Affected by the international situation, the development of the industry ushered in a good opportunity, mainly in the more mature process nodes, in addition to semiconductor equipment, display, photovoltaic and other industries for the growth of the entire domestic equipment have played a good driving role." On the other hand, China's material market is also growing steadily, which is also a good opportunity for domestic enterprises.
The "Several Policies for Promoting the High-quality Development of the Integrated Circuit Industry and Software Industry in the New Era" promulgated by the State Council in August last year includes eight aspects including finance and taxation, investment and financing, research and development, import and export, talents, intellectual property rights, market application standards, and international cooperation. Among them, the key points of research and development policy are to focus on core technologies, promote innovation platforms, and implement national standards. SEMI has been operating in standards for many years and has developed more than 1000 standards and safety-related guidelines in 16 categories, which are widely used in the global semiconductor industry. SEMI is committed to bringing China's industry into the global standard system. It has done this in photovoltaic, successfully bringing China's photovoltaic standards to the world and becoming a global standard.
Julong pointed out that in the face of the current severe challenges, international cooperation and domestic R & D and innovation should go hand in hand, walk on two legs, and play the effect of double circulation. In addition to strengthening and improving the supply chain, innovation chain and capital chain more professional investment, but also pay more attention to the talent chain. The shortage and loss of talents is the core pain faced by semiconductor enterprises, with the rapid development of the industry, the opportunities of science and technology board and the impact of entrepreneurial tide factors, the brain drain of leading enterprises is serious. The competition for talent in the market is fierce, and how to retain and motivate talent is a top priority for the sustainable development of enterprises.
In emerging fields, including power and compound semiconductors and other industries, the domestic prospects are huge. With the help of a strong domestic demand market, it is the hope to take the lead in seeking breakthroughs. SEMI has been exploring the direction and market opportunities of industrial technology in combination with international and domestic industries since it built "SEMI China Power and Compound Semiconductor Platform" in 2018.
SEMI is a global industry association connecting the global semiconductor electronics industry chain. In the past 51 years, SEMI has maintained global membership and win-win cooperation. Adhering to the concept of globalization, specialization and localization, SEMI hopes to play a more active role in China under the current international situation and help the cooperation between domestic and global industries to achieve common growth.
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